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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -11.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

KC
57.9%
CAR
42.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CAR): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

KC

Charles Omenihu DE Out Knee
Isiah Pacheco RB Out Ankle

CAR

Miles Sanders RB Out Ankle
Amare Barno LB Doubtful Knee
Jalen Coker WR Questionable Quadricep
Eddy Pineiro K Questionable Left Knee
Jonathon Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Knee
D.J. Johnson LB Questionable Concussion
LaBryan Ray DE Questionable Hand
D.J. Wonnum LB Questionable Quadricep
Adam Thielen WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
CAR 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:44 TD KC (13:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 83-N.Gray for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – CAR 0
  • Q1 09:28 FG CAR (9:28) 4-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. KC 7 – CAR 3
  • Q1 02:42 FG KC (2:42) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 10 – CAR 3
  • Q2 14:46 FG CAR (14:46) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. KC 10 – CAR 6
  • Q2 07:29 FG KC (7:29) 40-S.Shrader 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 13 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:50 TD KC (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG CAR (:04) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. KC 20 – CAR 9
  • Q3 06:30 TD CAR (6:30) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 83-D.Moore for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – CAR 15
  • Q3 02:49 TD KC (2:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 8-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – CAR 16
  • Q4 12:41 FG CAR (12:41) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. KC 27 – CAR 19
  • Q4 01:49 TD CAR (1:49) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – CAR 25
  • Q4 00:02 FG KC (:02) 40-S.Shrader 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 30 – CAR 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:28) 4-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (2:42) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (14:46) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 31 for 16 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on KC-27-C.Conner, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (7:30) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to KC 1 for 1 yard (51-M.Danna).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

    (3:54) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard to CAR 12 for 13 yards (99-S.Tuttle; 25-X.Woods).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (12:41) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-M.Hardman to KC 25 for -4 yards (42-S.Franklin; 53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to CAR 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 46 for 10 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 46.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 52%

    (2:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to KC 29 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).