Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 84

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to CAR 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 46 for 10 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model