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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard to CAR 12 for 13 yards (99-S.Tuttle; 25-X.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model