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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 4-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model