4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP