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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model