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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ARI
56.5%
SEA
43.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 25
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ARI

Jalen Thompson S Out Ankle
Darius Robinson DT Questionable Calf
Xavier Thomas LB Questionable Back
Jonah Williams T Questionable Knee

SEA

Brady Russell TE Out Foot
Noah Fant TE Questionable Groin
Laviska Shenault WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 6
–
SEA 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:47 FG ARI (9:47) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 01:17 TD SEA (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – SEA 6
  • Q3 07:25 TD SEA (7:25) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 31. 8-C.Bryant for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 3 – SEA 13
  • Q4 10:11 FG ARI (10:11) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – SEA 13
  • Q4 02:00 FG SEA (2:00) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-98-R.Lopez has returned to the game. ARI 6 – SEA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 20 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:21) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 33-D.Williams to SEA 16 for 9 yards (84-E.Higgins).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 20 for no gain.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to 50, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-18-J.Ross.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (9:47) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%

    (5:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to ARI 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-J.Reed.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to SEA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (11:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to ARI 3, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-22-T.Brown. PENALTY on SEA-86-P.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 3.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 57%

    (7:25) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 31. 8-C.Bryant for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-21-D.Witherspoon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (10:11) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 76%

    (2:00) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-98-R.Lopez has returned to the game.