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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to ARI 3, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-22-T.Brown. PENALTY on SEA-86-P.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.07 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model