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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to ARI 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model