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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP