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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 33-D.Williams to SEA 16 for 9 yards (84-E.Higgins).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP