Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(12:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model