Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.137 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ARI defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- ARI offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- NYJ on 3 more days rest than ARI
- NYJ crossing 3 time zone(s)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
NYJ
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:01 TD ARI (13:01) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ARI 6
- Q1 07:51 FG NYJ (7:51) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – ARI 7
- Q1 03:00 TD ARI (3:00) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-54-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 3 – ARI 13
- Q2 11:41 FG NYJ (11:41) 40-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 6 – ARI 14
- Q2 05:48 TD ARI (5:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 18-M.Harrison for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – ARI 20
- Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 38-C.Ryland 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. NYJ 6 – ARI 24
- Q3 04:19 TD ARI (4:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – ARI 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(7:51) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%
(11:41) 40-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(4:16) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to ARI 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 56%
(:42) 6-J.Conner up the middle to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 95-Q.Williams).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%
(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at ARI 11 for -8 yards (54-X.Thomas). FUMBLES (54-X.Thomas) [54-X.Thomas], touched at ARI 8, RECOVERED by ARI-7-K.White at ARI 12.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to ARI 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-41-M.McCrary-Ball.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%
(11:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62%
(10:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 41 for 6 yards (24-S.Thomas).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 11 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%
(4:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-M.Corley.