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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 27

New York Jets 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 40-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model