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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 21 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:42) 6-J.Conner up the middle to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 95-Q.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model