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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 7

New York Jets 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 40-S.Shrader 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP