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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 31 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP