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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 6 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at ARI 11 for -8 yards (54-X.Thomas). FUMBLES (54-X.Thomas) [54-X.Thomas], touched at ARI 8, RECOVERED by ARI-7-K.White at ARI 12.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model