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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 4 at the 11
New York Jets 6 – Arizona Cardinals 31
What Actually Happened
(4:45) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 14-M.Corley.
The Three Options
GO
+2.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.40 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
KICK
+1.77 EP
- 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT
-0.28 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
