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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2024-11-04 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

TB
41.8%
KC
58.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.109 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.120 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
KC 26
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Greg Gaines DT Out Calf
Evan Deckers LS Out Hamstring
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Foot
Tykee Smith S Questionable Concussion
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Toe
Jalen McMillan WR Questionable Hamstring
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring

KC

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Hamstring
Jared Wiley TE Out Knee
Michael Danna DE Out Pectoral
Nazeeh Johnson CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:20 FG KC (2:20) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. TB 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 10:28 TD TB (10:28) 1-R.White left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – KC 3
  • Q2 04:09 TD KC (4:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 8-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – KC 9
  • Q3 11:40 TD TB (11:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – KC 10
  • Q3 05:55 FG TB (5:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 17 – KC 10
  • Q4 14:21 TD KC (14:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 34-S.Perine for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play. TB 17 – KC 16
  • Q4 04:20 TD KC (4:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 8-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:30 TD TB (:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-R.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – KC 24
  • Q5 04:15 TD KC (4:15) 64-W.Morris reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 18 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 54%

    (9:23) 14-M.Araiza punts 35 yards to TB 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:04) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to KC 15, Center-45-Z.Triner. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 45 for 30 yards (51-J.Russell). KC-17-M.Hardman was injured during the play.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (2:20) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to KC 17, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-C.Izien. ** Injury Update: KC-17-M.Hardman has returned to the game.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 33%

    (:32) 16-T.Gill punts 32 yards to KC 17, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

    (5:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:49) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to KC 22, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:52) 64-W.Morris reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 49 for 3 yards (31-A.Winfield; 50-V.Vea).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:49) 16-T.Gill punts 31 yards to KC 45, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt. PENALTY on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 45.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to TB 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-T.Palmer ran ob at TB 29 for 10 yards (34-S.Perine).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to TB 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-N.Jones.