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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to KC 17, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by TB-29-C.Izien. ** Injury Update: KC-17-M.Hardman has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model