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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model