Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 16-T.Gill punts 31 yards to KC 45, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt. PENALTY on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model