Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

(2:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 47 yards to TB 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-T.Palmer ran ob at TB 29 for 10 yards (34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model