Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to KC 15, Center-45-Z.Triner. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 45 for 30 yards (51-J.Russell). KC-17-M.Hardman was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.47 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model