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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:32) 16-T.Gill punts 32 yards to KC 17, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model