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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DET
49.9%
GB
50.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.205 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.185 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DET

Josh Paschal DE Out Illness
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Out Ankle
Brodric Martin DT Out Knee
Sione Vaki RB Doubtful Knee
Mekhi Wingo DT Doubtful Ankle

GB

Evan Williams S Out Hamstring
Josh Myers C Doubtful Wrist
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Knee
Corey Ballentine CB Questionable Ankle
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Ankle
Jordan Love QB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
GB 14

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:09 FG GB (7:09) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 0 – GB 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD DET (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 3
  • Q2 01:01 FG DET (1:01) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – GB 3
  • Q2 00:42 TD DET (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 8-J.Jacobs INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph [34-A.Anzalone] at GB 27. 31-K.Joseph for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – GB 3
  • Q3 09:36 TD DET (9:36) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – GB 3
  • Q3 00:52 FG GB (:52) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 24 – GB 6
  • Q4 03:52 TD GB (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – GB 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

    (11:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to DET 42 for 2 yards (91-L.Onwuzurike).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (7:09) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 44%

    (12:17) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-80-B.Melton.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:31) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to GB 28, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to GB 32 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell; 49-H.Hatten). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 28.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (5:28) 17-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (1:01) 39-J.Bates 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (9:36) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DET 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-0-T.Arnold, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DET 12.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (6:04) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to GB 25, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (:52) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:14) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 17, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to DET 36 for 28 yards (15-E.Rakestraw).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (10:07) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to DET 9 for no gain (53-T.Nowaske; 46-J.Campbell).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:32) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to GB 38, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to GB 45 for 7 yards (53-T.Nowaske). ** Injury Update: DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin has returned to the game.