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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 85-T.Kraft. 85-T.Kraft up the middle to DET 42 for 2 yards (91-L.Onwuzurike).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model