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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(:52) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model