Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 61

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 6

(14:14) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 17, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model