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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-80-B.Melton.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model