Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 79

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to GB 38, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to GB 45 for 7 yards (53-T.Nowaske). ** Injury Update: DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model