Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 82

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to GB 28, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to GB 32 for 4 yards (46-J.Campbell; 49-H.Hatten). PENALTY on GB-36-K.Hadden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model