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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TEN
20.1%
DET
79.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.218 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
DET 29
Projected margin: DET by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TEN

Jaelyn Duncan T Out Hamstring
L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Quadricep
Cedric Gray LB Out Shoulder
T'Vondre Sweat DT Questionable Hip
Jerome Baker LB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Jarvis Brownlee CB Questionable Ankle
Will Levis QB Questionable Right Shoulder
Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Hamstring

DET

Josh Paschal DE Out Illness
Christian Mahogany G Out Illness

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
DET 52

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD DET (10:36) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:13 TD TEN (4:13) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – DET 7
  • Q1 04:07 TD DET (4:07) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – DET 13
  • Q2 14:22 TD TEN (14:22) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – DET 14
  • Q2 12:55 TD DET (12:55) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DET 20
  • Q2 11:41 TD DET (11:41) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DET 27
  • Q2 02:23 TD DET (2:23) 5-D.Montgomery pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DET 34
  • Q3 13:05 TD DET (13:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to DET 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DET 41
  • Q3 06:17 TD DET (6:17) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DET 48
  • Q3 01:13 FG DET (1:13) 39-J.Bates 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. TEN 14 – DET 52

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:10) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 16 for 8 yards (33-S.Vaki). FUMBLES (33-S.Vaki), touched at TEN 16, and recovers at TEN 15.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (8:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to DET 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 10 yards (92-J.Harrell; 81-J.Whyle).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 39%

    (9:22) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles right end to DET 47 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 34%

    (6:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 37 yards to DET 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to TEN 22 for 64 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley (31-K.Joseph) [91-L.Onwuzurike]. Penalty on TEN-61-J.Ojukwu, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to DET 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DET 17, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:55) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 23 for 11 yards (84-S.Zylstra, 42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to DET 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 44 yards (44-M.Brown). PENALTY on DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 29.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 76%

    (1:13) 39-J.Bates 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:59) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to DET 28 for 2 yards (85-C.Okonkwo; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:56) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-49-H.Hatten.