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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 37 yards to DET 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to TEN 22 for 64 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model