Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 49

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to DET 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 44 yards (44-M.Brown). PENALTY on DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model