Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 75

Detroit Lions 52 – Tennessee Titans 14

(10:59) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model