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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 33

Detroit Lions 49 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 39-J.Bates 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP