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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to DET 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP