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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 1

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley (31-K.Joseph) [91-L.Onwuzurike]. Penalty on TEN-61-J.Ojukwu, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +4.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.46 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model