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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

IND
47.9%
HOU
52.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Joe Flacco (IND): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Joe Flacco in place of Anthony Richardson)
  • HOU offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

IND

Genard Avery DE Out Foot
Jaylon Carlies LB Out Fibula

HOU

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Knee
Jimmie Ward S Out Groin
Henry To'oTo'o LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
HOU 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 FG HOU (11:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 10:03 FG IND (10:03) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – HOU 3
  • Q1 01:01 TD IND (1:01) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Fatukasi]. IND 9 – HOU 3
  • Q2 10:12 TD HOU (10:12) 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-54-J.Patterson was injured during the play. IND 10 – HOU 9
  • Q2 00:23 TD HOU (:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-T.Dell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – HOU 16
  • Q3 07:55 FG HOU (7:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 10 – HOU 20
  • Q3 02:04 FG IND (2:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – HOU 20
  • Q4 12:24 FG HOU (12:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. IND 13 – HOU 23
  • Q4 08:34 TD IND (8:34) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (11:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 84%

    (10:03) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to IND 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 34%

    (6:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 20 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to IND 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-13-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 47 for 13 yards (93-A.Gotsis).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (8:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 18 for 12 yards (92-D.Horton).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 17 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:38) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods ran ob at HOU 45 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (5:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-13-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:01) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 59%

    (11:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (7:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 36%

    (5:50) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end to HOU 38 for 12 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (2:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (12:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to IND 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 27 for 9 yards (87-C.Stover). PENALTY on IND-38-K.Joseph, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at IND 18.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 27-T.Sermon to IND 49 for 14 yards (23-E.Murray).