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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.72 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model