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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model