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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 16

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.07 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model