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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 60

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 6-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to IND 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.55 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP