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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 27-T.Sermon to IND 49 for 14 yards (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP