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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 53

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-13-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model