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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BAL
72.4%
CLE
27.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.294 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: BAL by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

BAL

Rasheen Ali RB Out Ankle
T.J. Tampa CB Out Ankle
Keaton Mitchell RB Out Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Doubtful Knee
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Questionable Hamstring
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Ankle
Travis Jones DT Questionable Ankle
Nate Wiggins CB Questionable Shoulder

CLE

Ronnie Hickman S Out Ankle
Jordan Hicks LB Out Elbow
Jedrick Wills T Out Knee
Jerome Ford RB Out Hamstring
Wyatt Teller G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24
–
CLE 29

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:40 FG CLE (:40) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 11:56 FG BAL (11:56) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 03:45 FG CLE (3:45) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:31 TD BAL (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CLE 6
  • Q3 10:52 TD CLE (10:52) 5-J.Winston pass deep right to 85-D.Njoku for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – CLE 12
  • Q3 04:47 TD BAL (4:47) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-J.Owusu-Koramoah]. BAL 16 – CLE 13
  • Q3 02:06 TD CLE (2:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 19-C.Tillman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 17 – CLE 19
  • Q4 04:59 FG CLE (4:59) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 17 – CLE 23
  • Q4 02:41 TD BAL (2:41) (Shotgun) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – CLE 23
  • Q4 01:04 TD CLE (1:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-C.Tillman for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – CLE 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (8:48) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for -2 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah, 90-M.Hurst).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (:40) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (10:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:32) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 33 for 7 yards (49-C.Board).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (3:45) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:08) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 42 for 12 yards (16-T.Wallace).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 48%

    (8:19) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-28-S.Kane.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 38 for 10 yards (59-W.Reid; 37-Da.Bell).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (13:03) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 6, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. CLE-38-T.Brown was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:18) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 38 for 17 yards (49-C.Board). ** Injury Update: CLE-38-T.Brown has returned to the game.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (4:59) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 4-Z.Flowers.