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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP