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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 13 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to BAL 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 38 for 10 yards (59-W.Reid; 37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model